Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 158 (S08E11)
produced the largest flare of the period which was a C3.5/Sf that
occurred at 17/1207 UTC. Penumbral growth was seen in the trailing
cluster of spots in this northeast-southwest orientated spot
complex. A weak gamma magnetic structure also became evident today.
Several lesser C-class flares were also attributed to this region.
Region 149 (N14W33) showed slight decay and produced a single
optically correlated long duration event, flare maximum reached
C3.0/Sf at 17/1805 UTC. Weak magnetic gamma structure seen
yesterday is no longer apparent. New region 162 (N25E76) was
assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 149 and 158 are capable of producing low level
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An
isolated active period occurred between 17/0000-0300 UTC at high
latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Active
conditions are possible on day one due to elevated solar wind speed.
Day three may see active conditions in response to a relatively
small, yet favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 179 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 010/015-008/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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