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Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 December 2002

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 223 (N25W58) produced an M1.1/2f flare at 22/0230 UTC that had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 833 km/sec and a Tenflare. There was some growth in areal spot coverage during the period while this region continues to exhibit a simple magnetic structure. Regions 226 (S28E67) and 229 (N19W42) have been in steady decay throughout the period. Region 226 continues to depict a magnetic delta structure in the main cluster of intermediate spots. Region 230 (S08W07) underwent little change today. The later three regions mentioned were quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period at middle and high latitudes between 22/1800 and 2100 UTC. The NASA/ACE instrument detected a weak shock passage at approximately 22/1300 UTC. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly north since transient onset. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast period. Due to a slightly elevated solar wind speed there may be isolated active periods observed mostly at high latitudes into day one of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Dec 172
  Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        22 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  012/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Dec  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  010/015-006/010-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (547.5 km/sec.)

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