Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 224 (S14W81)
produced two C5 flares. The first one at 24/0527 UTC and the second
one at 24/1451 UTC. Region 224 has stopped its growth phase of the
last few days. Region 226 (S28W89) continues to gradually decay and
has simplied to a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 234
(N18E73) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 230 has the potential for M-class activity.
Regions 224 and 226 also have M-class potential as they rotate
beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A weak
transient was observed by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at approximately
24/1300 UTC. Solar wind speed increased to near 575 km/s and Bz was
slightly negative. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. Isolated active conditions may continue into day one of
the forecast period. By late on day one and through day two
activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Coronal hole effects
are expected to commence on day three of the period with isolated
active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 147 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 012/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 012/010-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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