Viewing archive of Monday, 30 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Activity was limited to several very minor low level B-class flares. At the time of this writing there are three regions exhibiting spots in white light, all of them small and simply structured. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active conditions were the result of a favorably positioned coronal hole that is in it's waning stage. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on day one due to the elevated solar wind speed (approximately 500 km/sec).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Dec 114
  Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        30 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  008/010-005/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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