Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 244 (S23W01)
produced an M1/1f event at 07/0750 UTC. Region 242 (S06W09) has
shown significant growth and is now at 340 millionths of penumbral
coverage with 36 spots. Four new regions were numbered today as
Region's 248 (S11W41), 249 (S16E18), 250 (S27E79), and 251 (S14E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region's 242 and 244 have potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active conditions
are possible on 10 January due to the effects from a recurrent
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 163 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 002/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 008/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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