Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 244 (S23W01) produced an M1/1f event at 07/0750 UTC. Region 242 (S06W09) has shown significant growth and is now at 340 millionths of penumbral coverage with 36 spots. Four new regions were numbered today as Region's 248 (S11W41), 249 (S16E18), 250 (S27E79), and 251 (S14E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region's 242 and 244 have potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible on 10 January due to the effects from a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 163
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  165/170/175
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  002/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  008/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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