Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 251 (S13E58) produced an M1/1n event at 09/0537 UTC. Region 242 (S08W34) and 251 both continue to retain their beta gamma magnetic configuration. Another region of interest is Region 247 (S17E34) which has shown significant growth in area and spot count. It is currently at 340 millionths of white light coverage with 36 spots. A new region was numbered today as Region 252 (S04E61).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 242, 247, and 251 are all capable of producing an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible on 10 January as a result of coronal hole activity.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jan 183
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  010/015-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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