Viewing archive of Friday, 10 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Only C-class events were observed through the period. Region 242 (S08W48) has shown a decrease in area and sunspots but retains its beta gamma magnetic configuration. Region 247 (S15E20) has maintained its area and spot count and the magnetic configuration of the region became a beta gamma configuration. Region 251 (S13E44) has an area of 340 millionths of white light with 12 spots and a beta configuration. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 253 (N11W36) and 254 (S15E72).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible from Region 242, 247, and 251.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 185
  Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  190/195/200
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  002/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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