Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 March 2003

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. A small number of C-class flares did occur with the largest a C1.3 at 1021 UTC from Region 292 (S09W78). SXI imagery from GOES-12 shows two new regions behind the East limb at approximately N15 and S20.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next day, increasing to unsettled to active levels on days two and three.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar

Class M	30%	30%	30%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	01%	01%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       02 Mar 147
  Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar  150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        02 Mar 142

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Mar  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  012/015-015/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	30%	35%
Minor storm	15%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	45%	40%
Minor storm	20%	30%	30%
Major-severe storm	05%	10%	10%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (545.2 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (19.1nT), the direction is North (2.51nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)

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