Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 314 (S13W14)
produced a C8.4 flare at 15/2016 UTC and a C3.7 flare at 15/1530
UTC. This region has continued its rapid growth, more than doubling
in area coverage over the past twenty-four hours to 220 millionths.
Increased magnetic complexity in the trailing spots of Region 314
suggest a weak delta configuration may be forming. Region 306
(N07W33) appears to be breaking up and may be developing a weak
delta configuration in the northern portion of the largest spot.
NOAA/SXI imagery indicates a new region, rotating onto the east limb
at N17, as the source of a number of B-class flares and one minor
C-class flare. New Region 315 (N03W74) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 306, 314 and the east limb region at N17 have
C-class potential. Regions 306 and 314 have a slight chance of
M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm levels. Solar wind velocity has been steady
at 600 km/s and Bz has been, on average, slightly southward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Continued high speed
stream effects are expected on day one and day two of the period.
CME effects from the DSF on 14 March are possible on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 131 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 016/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 021/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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