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Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 March 2003

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 314 (S13W14) produced a C8.4 flare at 15/2016 UTC and a C3.7 flare at 15/1530 UTC. This region has continued its rapid growth, more than doubling in area coverage over the past twenty-four hours to 220 millionths. Increased magnetic complexity in the trailing spots of Region 314 suggest a weak delta configuration may be forming. Region 306 (N07W33) appears to be breaking up and may be developing a weak delta configuration in the northern portion of the largest spot. NOAA/SXI imagery indicates a new region, rotating onto the east limb at N17, as the source of a number of B-class flares and one minor C-class flare. New Region 315 (N03W74) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 306, 314 and the east limb region at N17 have C-class potential. Regions 306 and 314 have a slight chance of M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels with one period of minor storm levels. Solar wind velocity has been steady at 600 km/s and Bz has been, on average, slightly southward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Continued high speed stream effects are expected on day one and day two of the period. CME effects from the DSF on 14 March are possible on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 131
  Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  016/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  021/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

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The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-51nT)
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Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth

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