Viewing archive of Monday, 17 March 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 314 (S16W39) produced an X1/1b flare at 17/1905 UTC. The flare was accompanied by a 520 sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz. This region also produced several C-class events over the past 24 hours. Sunspots continued to grow and the delta configuration in the trailer spots had intensified since yesterday. Other disk regions were relatively quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class activity is likely in Region 314, including the possibility of another major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels under the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind speeds remained above 600 km/s and Bz fluctuated between +/- 10 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active over the next 24 hours with the possibility of minor storm periods. Activity levels are expected to abate by the end of the three-day forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 125
  Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  012/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  025/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%50%50%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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