Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 March 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 314 (S16W52) produced an X1/1B flare at 18/1208 UTC. The flare was associated with type II/IV radio sweeps, a 1400 sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz, and an apparent CME observed by the NASA SOHO spacecraft. This region also produced several other smaller flares over the past 24 hours. New Region 316 (S12E66) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Flare activity is expected to continue in Region 314, including the chance of another major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels as the coronal hole induced disturbance continued. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 48 hours. The CME associated with the 18 March X1/1B flare may influence activity levels on 20 March.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
Class M75%75%75%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Mar 118
  Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar  115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        18 Mar 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  019/039
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Mar  020/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  020/025-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%60%50%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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