Viewing archive of Monday, 14 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only C-class event was a C1 at 0930 UTC from Region 335
(S22E57). Region 334 (S08E29) exhibited the brightest plage
throughout the day but was not able to muster a flare-level event.
Region 330 (N07W57) continues to be the largest group on the disk
but was stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with a
period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes from 1200-1500
UTC. The enhanced activity was associated with an extended interval
of moderately strong (-5 to -10 nT) southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component between 1100-1500 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high levels early in the
day but dropped below 1000 PFU after 0525 UTC. Solar wind speed and
temperature showed a gradual increasing trend during the last four
hours of the day, which may indicate the beginning of a high speed
solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with occasional active periods
over the next three days. There is a chance for some isolated storm
periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 102 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 012/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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