Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 February 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 289 (N11W52) produced a B9.8 flare at 18/0841 UTC. The most significant event on the visible disk was a 47 degree disappearing solar filament that lifted off at 18/0125 UTC and was centered at N34W58. Associated with the DSF was a CME off the NW limb which does not appear to have an Earth directed component. Region 288 (N12E32) has remained relatively stable. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 289 (N11W52) and Region 290 (N17E46).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 288 and 289 have C-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. A transient passage was observed at the NASA/ACE spacecraft late on 17 February. The transient resulted in an increase in solar wind speed to over 700 km/s and combined with fluctuating southward Bz was the source of minor storm conditions measured at the Boulder magnetometer. At about 18/0400 UTC, the solar wind became very structured and was marked by a northward turning Bz and a gradual decline in solar wind speed to current levels near 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels. Coronal hole effects are expected to continue after the transient has passed.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Feb 110
  Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        18 Feb 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Feb  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  015/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

All times in UTC

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