Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 260 produced an M1.2/1f flare at 22/0444 UTC. This region has seen steady decay in magnetic complexity and penumbral coverage during the period. Region 269 (S09E63) has been quiescent today and appears to be a simple magnetic beta group. Region 267 (S20E51) has shown slow but steady growth since rotating onto disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 267 and 269 have a slight chance of producing low level M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective on day one of the forecast period. Days two and three should experience similar conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
Class M35%35%35%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jan 130
  Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  009/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  020/020-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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