Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar Activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Today's flare activity consisted of a few low-level C-class subflares. A backward C-shaped filament erupted off the disk at about 1805 UTC today. The filament eruption was associated with a fast, narrow CME off the northeast limb, first seen in the C2 field of view at 1854 UTC. The estimated CME velocity in C2 was about 715 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind data seem to indicate the onset of a high speed coronal hole wind stream around 1600 UTC, with speeds up to about 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next two days in response to the high speed solar wind stream associated with a 30 degree wide solar coronal hole. Conditions should subside slightly to unsettled to active levels by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Dec 127
  Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec  125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        26 Dec 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Dec  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  016/020-016/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

All times in UTC

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