Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest event was an M2.5/1n flare at 23/1243 UTC from Region 266 (S22E13). Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep measuring 578 km/s. A second M-class flare, an M1.0, from Region 266 occurred at 23/0448 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (476 km/s). In the last 24 hours, Region 266 has shown increased growth and complexity in the leader spots. The spot group is now 140 millionths in size with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 263 (S11W68) has also exhibited growth in area coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 263, 266 and 267 have the potential to produce and isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The onset of coronal hole effects resulted in minor storm conditions early in the period. NASA/ACE instruments indicate an increase in solar wind speed with peak values near 700 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was slightly southward early in the period but has since been, on average, neutral. 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit exceeded event threshold today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Continued high speed stream effects have the potential for isolated minor storming on day one of the forecast period. Day two and day three are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jan 136
  Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  017/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  020/020-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

All times in UTC

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