Viewing archive of Friday, 24 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 266
(S19E31) produced an M1.9/1n flare at 24/0327 UTC with an associated
Type II (600 km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep. LASCO imagery
indicates a CME which was not Earth directed. Region 266 continues
to grow in area size and spot count. Region 268 (N14W17) shows
signs of polarity mixing and has developed a beta delta magnetic
configuration. No activity was observed from this region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 263, 266, and 268 have the potential
for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The effects
from a geo-effective coronal hole continued today and produced an
isolated active condition early in the period. Solar wind velocity
increased to near 800 km/s around 24/1400 UTC. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit exceeded event threshold
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of
isolated active conditions. The elevated solar wind velocity has
the potential of producing active periods on day one. Day two and
three are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 130 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 016/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 015/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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