Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. The now spotless Region
235 (N13W08) produced a subfaint flare early in the period, but has
been quiet since. Occasional intensity enhancements accompanied a
small increase in the size and complexity of Region 236 (N16W41).
New Regions 237 (S26E00) and 238 (N09E15) were numbered today. The
remaining regions are small, showing no significant changes this
period. There are several large, but mostly quiescent filaments on
the visible disk. Occasional motion was noted in the large filament
centered near N22W12. A long duration, but low intensity X-ray
enhancement was observed beginning at around 28/1700Z. This was
likely associated with a strong CME that appears to have originated
behind the NW limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. There's a chance for low C-class activity from Regions
234 (N19E19) and 236.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active at all
latitudes. A high speed stream, associated with a large equatorial
coronal hole, began late on 26 Dec and continues to buffet the
magnetic field. The peak solar wind in this high speed stream
exceeded 750 km/s, but has declined slowly to near 650 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The high speed coronal hole
stream currently impacting the geomagnetic field will gradually
subside through day one. Ejecta from the CME off the NW limb late in
the period today does not appear Earthbound. Expect mostly unsettled
levels through days two and three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 117
Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 28 Dec 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 022/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 60% | 40% | 30% |
Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
<< Go to daily overview page