Viewing archive of Monday, 17 February 2003
Solar activity report
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 112 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NTLatest news
Coronal hole faces Earth
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Coronal hole faces Earth
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Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity.
13:55 UTC - Coronal hole
A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days
02:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 02:33 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/21 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/22 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 138.3 -16.4 |
| Last 30 days | 136.1 -18.1 |