Viewing archive of Monday, 17 February 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was a C1.9 flare on the west limb. The most likely source was spotless Region 287 (N12W90). The majority of activity continues to come from the west limb and consist of B-class and minor C-class events. The only spotted region on the visible disk in Region 288 (N12E44). This region has remained a stable spot group with a simple beta magnetic configuration. Surging was the only observed activity from Region 288.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 288 has the potential for C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Coronal hole effects continue to keep solar wind elevated between 600 and 650 km/s and Bz continues to be, on average, slightly negative.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. Coronal hole effects are expected to continue through the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 112
  Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  009/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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