Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. There were several
C-class and numerous B-class flares originating from old Region 314
(S16, L=062) which has rotated off the west limb. The largest flare
from this region was a C2.3 x-ray flare that occurred at 22/0055Z.
The remainder of disk was quiescent throughout the interval. Region
318 (S16E74), a four spot beta group, has begun to rotate into view
from the east limb and was newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active conditions. The
solar wind speed has shown a slow, yet steady decrease during the
interval as a favorably positioned coronal hole enters into its
waning stage. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit have again exceeded high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled conditions throughout the
period. Active conditions and isolated minor storm periods are
possible late on day three due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 089 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 019/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 010/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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