Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 April 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. There were 4 minor C-class flares from Regions 321 (N07W40) and 324 (S12W21).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from Regions 321 (N07W40), 323 (S07W56), 324 (S12W21), or 325 (N10E04).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The high speed stream that began on 30 March has gained slightly in strength to nearly 580 km/sec. Intermittently southward Bz has generated disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor-storm levels due to the continuing high speed stream, and potential for southward Bz. The high speed stream should diminish tomorrow, and the geomagnetic field should end the day at quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Apr 158
  Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr  155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        02 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Apr  021/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%35%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

All times in UTC

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