Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 April 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 337 (S16W67) produced an M1/1f flare at 0459Z. Region 337 appears to have lost its delta magnetic configuration since producing the M1 flare, but continues to produce minor C-class flares. Region 349 (S13E20) has exhibited significant growth in area and spot count over the last twenty-four hours, and now exceeds 40 spots and over 500 millionths of white light coverage. This region has produced a number of minor C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 337 and 349 have the potential for M-class events. Region 349 could produce a major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind velocity remains elevated near 550 km/s. Transient flow has produced periods of southward Bz that resulted in isolated active and minor storm conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active. A returning coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geo-effective position on day one of the period and may produce active to isolated minor storm levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Apr 155
  Predicted   30 Apr-02 May  155/150/140
  90 Day Mean        29 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  009/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Apr  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  012/015-015/025-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%45%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%

All times in UTC

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