Viewing archive of Monday, 28 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
337 (S14W53) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.4/Sf
event occurring at 28/0436Z. There was little change to the
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity noted during the period.
Region 338 (N18W98) has rotated beyond the west limb, although it
did manage to trigger several lesser C-class flares throughout the
day. Region 344 (N16W14) produced the second largest flare of the
interval, a C3.3/Sf occurring at 28/1815Z. This region maintains a
very weak delta complex and magnetically appears to be showing
slight decay. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A very
weak signature from the NASA/ACE data indicate a transient may have
passed around 28/1200Z although the elevated geomagnetic conditions
are believed to be from a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have again reached
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active for days one and
two of the period as the current coronal hole begins to wane. Minor
storm conditions may occur on day three due to the onset of another
favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Apr 152 Predicted 29 Apr-01 May 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 28 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 012/015-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SKAnchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future
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