Viewing archive of Monday, 26 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 365
(S06W06) produce two M-class events with the largest one an M1.9/1f
at 0550Z. This region also produced a long duration C7 flare at
1744Z. LASCO C2 imagery indicates narrow CME's associated with the
two M-class events but neither one has an Earth directed component.
Region 365 continues to grow in area coverage but the rate of growth
has slowed since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 365 is expected to produce C-class
flares and has the potential for isolated M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Residual
effects from a high speed stream produced active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole
high speed stream is expected to produce minor storming on day one
and day two of the period. By day three, conditions are expected to
at quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 125 Predicted 27 May-29 May 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 26 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 014/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 025/030-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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