Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun

Class M	25%	25%	25%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       22 Jun 110
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  016/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  015/015-012/012-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	35%	30%	30%
Minor storm	15%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	40%	35%	35%
Minor storm	20%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	10%	05%	05%

Comments K-Indices On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

All times in UTC

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