Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 388 (S03W19)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.5/Sf that occurred at
21/1313Z along with many lesser flares during the interval. This
region showed rapid growth during the period with a more than
doubling of the penumbral coverage. Region 386 (S07E04) produced
several lesser C-class flares today and has been in a steady decay
phase since yesterday. The delta magnetic structure is still intact
in the leading edge of the spot cluster. Region 387 (N18E23) was
fairly quiescent today although it still depicts a beta-gamma
magnetic complex. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 386, 387, and 388 all have the
potential for producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained periods of southward Bz along with elevated solar wind
speeds led to the occasional storming conditions. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm
conditions are possible throughout the period due to a recurrent
high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 115 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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