Viewing archive of Monday, 23 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity was low due to a single C1/Sf flare from
Region 388 (S01W47) at 22/2148Z. Regions 386 (S07W22), 387 (N17W03),
and 388 exhibited little change this period and produced no
significant activity. A new region emerged to the south of Region
387 and was numbered 391 (N15E03).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare
primarily from Region 386.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor
storm period between 23/03-06Z. The field was disturbed due to a
high speed coronal hole stream which peaked near 600 km/s very early
in the period and has been in slow decline since. The greater than 2
MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 114
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Comments
K-indicies
The scaling problem with the Boulder magnetometer instrument has been fixed and the instrument has been redesignated as the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
All times in UTC
<< Go to daily overview page