Viewing archive of Monday, 23 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a single C1/Sf flare from Region 388 (S01W47) at 22/2148Z. Regions 386 (S07W22), 387 (N17W03), and 388 exhibited little change this period and produced no significant activity. A new region emerged to the south of Region 387 and was numbered 391 (N15E03).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare primarily from Region 386.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm period between 23/03-06Z. The field was disturbed due to a high speed coronal hole stream which peaked near 600 km/s very early in the period and has been in slow decline since. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jun 114
  Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        23 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  011/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
Comments K-indicies The scaling problem with the Boulder magnetometer instrument has been fixed and the instrument has been redesignated as the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices. GOES Protons To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (545.2 km/sec.)
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.97nT).

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