Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class subflares occurred, mostly from Region 391 (N14W09). The largest was a C2/Sf at 24/1024Z. This region emerged quite quickly through the early part of this period, but has since stabilized. New Regions 392 (N07E69) and 393 (S15E72) were numbered today. No significant activity or changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Several of the active regions on the visible disk have potential to produce occasional C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active to minor storm levels were predominant during local nighttime hours. A high speed stream continues with solar wind speed ranging from 500 - 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jun 115
  Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        24 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  015/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jun  025/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  015/015-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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