Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar acitivity was low. Region 397 (N12W65) produced several C-class flares, the highest being a C2.3/Sf at 08/0230Z. Region 400 (N05W24) produced a C1.5 at 08/0251Z, and Region 402 (S12W58) produced two C-class flares, a C5.2/1f at 08/0730Z and a C3.2/Sf at 08/1626Z. A large filament in the northwest quadrant erupted in parts: a 23-degree section (N30W22) early in the period and a 21-degree section (N38W38) at 08/1500Z. Region 397 decreased in size and magnetic complexity, to a beta-gamma configuration. Region 402 grew rapidly in size over the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 397 has potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period, with isolated active to minor storm conditions on day three due to increased wind speeds from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jul 131
  Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        08 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jul  009/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  012/010-010/010-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%40%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm02%02%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%50%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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