Viewing archive of Monday, 4 August 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 424 (S18E39), with over 700 millionths of white light area, showed some growth this period, but was otherwise quite stable. Despite this region's moderate size, it maintains a relatively simple magnetic structure. New growth was observed in Region 425 (S09E36), but activity was limited to occasional plage fluctuations and minor surging. New Region 428 (N16W10) was numbered today. A full halo CME, first seen on LASCO imagery at 03/0030Z, was likely a backside event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class flares are possible from Regions 424 or 425. Region 424 has slight potential to produce an isolated M-class flare
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed continues to show a steady decline as the large southern coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position. Occasional periods of southward Bz account for the active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through day one with isolated active periods likely again. A large equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position by day two and produce unsettled to minor storm conditions through the remainder of the period. Isolated major storm periods at higher latitudes are expected on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Aug 123
  Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        04 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Aug  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  008/015-015/025-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%45%
Minor storm05%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%45%
Minor storm05%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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