Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 424 (S18E26)
produced an impulsive M1.7/Sn at 05/1249 UTC and a C1.1 flare at
05/1955 UTC. Region 421 (S07W43) produced a C3.5/Sf flare at
05/0914. Region 424 showed some growth in size and complexity. New
Region 429 (S24E55) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with C-class flares possible from Regions 424 or 425, and a slight
chance of isolated M-class flares from Region 424.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speeds
continued a steady decrease as the coronal hole moves out of
geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on day one.
Activity may increase to unsettled to minor storm conditions on days
two and three due to a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position. Isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes are
possible days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 131 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 015/020-025/035-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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