Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. Several B-class
flares were observed during the period, including a B8.7 from Region
424. Region 424 (S18E13) continues to grow in magnetic complexity
to a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 424 may produce C-class flares and isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagentic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. ACE
satellite data indicated a consistent southward Bz at 06/0200 UTC,
with increasing solar wind speed thereafter, up to a maximum of 600
km/s. ACE data is consistent with the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region and associated high speed solar wind from an
equatorial coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity for the
next two days is expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated
minor storm conditions, due to the increased solar wind stream from
an associated coronal hole in geoeffective position. On day three,
geomagnetic activity is expected at quiet to unsettled conditions,
as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 129 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 035/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 035/045-025/045-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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