Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 August 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 421 (S07W72) produced several flares, including a C1.3 at 07/1203 UTC. Two C-class flares were produced from an active region just on the other side of the east limb, the largest a C2.1 at 07/2050 UTC. These events were optically correlated with SXI imagery. Region 424 has stabilized in size and magnetic complexity. New Region 430 (S08W13) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. C-class flares are possible from Region 421. In the next few days, active regions just beyond the east limb should begin to appear earthside, which may produce increased solar activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. High solar wind speeds (up to 700 km/s), associated with a coronal hole in geoeffective position, are the likely cause of active conditions late in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, for day one, due to continued influence of an equatorial coronal hole. On days two and three, as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position, activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
Class M40%45%45%
Class X05%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Aug 137
  Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        07 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  034/043
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Aug  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  025/040-012/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm35%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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