Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. No significant
changes have been noted for the active regions on the visible disk.
After further analysis of the magnetic structure surrounding Regions
449 and 450, these regions have been combined into one region
numbered as 450 (S16W07).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with C-class flares possible from Region 450 (S16W07).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active, due to the effects of
high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind
speed was steady around 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm conditions
days one and two are possible from a high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 111 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 115/125/130 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 015/020-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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