Viewing archive of Monday, 1 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 444 (N08W60)
produced a B4.1 at 01/1411 UTC, optically correlated with SXI
imagery. No active regions have shown any significant changes. A
17-degree filament erupted near N23W60 sometime between 01/0045 and
01/1301 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 448 (N20W20) and 449 (S16E13) may produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to active levels, due to the
effects of high speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole moving
into geoeffective position. Solar wind speed at ACE increased to
500 km/s during the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions, as a coronal hole continues to move into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 108 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 115/115/125 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 026/030-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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