Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 September 2003
Solar activity report
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 137 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 013/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
KuopioBergen, Trondheim
Sundsvall, Umeå
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future
TamperePetrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
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