Viewing archive of Monday, 29 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 continues to
produce numerous C-class flares, including a long duration C3.8/Sf
at 29/2004 UTC. The region may also have produced an impulsive C5.1
at 29/1610 UTC, although the flare is not optically correlated. A
24 degree filament at S20W28 erupted between 2219 and 2319 UTC on
the 28th.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 464 may produce C- or M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one. There is a slight chance that a
CME associated with an erupting filament observed on 28 Sep may
cause unsettled to active conditions on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 135 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 005/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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