Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 August 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 442 (S13W47) produced a long duration C1 at 31/0622Z. LASCO imagery indicated a CME off the southwest limb associated with this flare. None of the other regions currently on the visible disk have shown any significant changes or activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed has been in steady decline throughout the day and is down to 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Late on day one to early on day two, a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position. Active to minor storm levels are expected on day two and day three.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Aug 110
  Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        31 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Aug  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  015/020-025/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%30%
Minor storm15%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%40%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%25%15%

All times in UTC

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