Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 August 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Though several regions continue to reside on the solar disk, none have demonstrated a strong level of activity. A solar filament (near S12W27, 17 deg extent) collapsed at 2022 UTC, but no material appears to have been ejected from the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. None of the current active regions shows any signs of greater than low potential for flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels with a single period of major storming at 0600 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field continues to be oriented southward, and the solar wind speeds continue to be elevated well above 450 km/s. During the storm period, wind speeds were near 650 km/s. There is some evidence in the energetic protons measured at the L1 orbit that a small interplanetary shock passed at or near the major storming period. The greater the 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24 to 36 hours. Near the end of the second day, a co-rotating interaction region associated with a coronal hole should effect minor to major storm levels, and continue as a high speed stream for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Aug 114
  Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        30 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  012/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Aug  015/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  012/012-020/020-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%15%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm05%15%25%

All times in UTC

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