Viewing archive of Friday, 29 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Though several regions
currently reside on the visible disk, none show significant
potential for greater than C-class flare activity. Two new regions;
450 (S18E66) and 451 (S10W65) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 450, 449, and 445 have a fair chance of producing C-class
flare activity. No other activity is expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Two
periods of minor storming occurred one at 1200 and another at 1700
UTC. The solar wind speeds continue to be elevated above 450 km/s,
reaching over 600 km/s toward the end of the period. This combined
with a sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field polarity
have kept the geomagnetic field elevated. The greater than 2 MeV
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days.
By late on day three, geomagnetic activity should increase to
unsettled to minor storm levels due to a co-rotating interaction
region associated with a coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 116 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 010/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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