Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 464
(N04E09) produced several B and C-class flares during the period.
This region has become more complex during the past 24 hours.
Intermediate spots indicate that a gamma structure is present. The
remainder of the numbered regions were fairly quiet during the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Due to the growing complexity of Region 464, there may
be a chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from active to minor storm levels.
A favorably positioned high speed coronal hole stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels due to the high speed
stream effects. The disappearing solar filament from yesterday and
the associated ejecta may further enhance the geomagnetic field,
pushing activity into minor storm levels with isolated periods of
major storming possible on day two of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 133 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 027/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 025/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 012/015-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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