Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04E22)
continues to be the most active region. It has increased in
activity over the last 24 hours, producing a series of minor C-class
flares, and elevating the solar X-ray background to approximately
the B5 level. A 20-degree disappearing solar filament lifted off at
0532 UTC centered near S19W23. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. There's a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 464.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
geoeffective coronal hole has maintained a high-speed solar wind
stream, and sustained elevated geomagnetic field activity for the
last couple of days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day.
Beginning approximately in the next 36 hours, the solar wind speeds
should begin to relax in response to the passing of the coronal
hole. But, within the next two days, the disappearing solar
filament ejecta should impact the geomagnetic field causing a rapid
increase in activity to minor storm levels with isolated periods of
major storming possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 134 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 030/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 015/020-015/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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