Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were several minor
C-class flares this period from developing Region 417 (S21W64),
including a C5/1f at 22/0718Z. This region exhibited moderate growth
during the period, in both size and magnetic complexity. Previously
active Region 410 (S13W53) maintains its considerable size, but has
simplified over the past 24-36 hours. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Regions 409 (N16W48), and 412 (N16W59).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare, most likely from
Region 417.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar
wind speeds were steady at approximately 450 km/s. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 153 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 150/145/135 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 010/012-012/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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