Viewing archive of Friday, 25 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. The only event of the
period was a long duration C1 flare observed at 25/1719 UTC. This
event was not correlated optically, however, activity near the east
limb may be a possible source. All regions on the visible disk are
currently stable or showing decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
26 July. A recurrent coronal hole should influence activity on 27
and 28 July. Conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active
levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 112 Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 110/110/120 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 015/015-015/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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