Viewing archive of Friday, 25 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. The only event of the period was a long duration C1 flare observed at 25/1719 UTC. This event was not correlated optically, however, activity near the east limb may be a possible source. All regions on the visible disk are currently stable or showing decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for 26 July. A recurrent coronal hole should influence activity on 27 and 28 July. Conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jul 112
  Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul  110/110/120
  90 Day Mean        25 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jul  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  015/015-015/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%45%
Minor storm10%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%

All times in UTC

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