Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S10W38)
produced a C2 flare at 17/0426Z. Region 431 continues its slow
decay and has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
New Region 436 (N07E69) was numbered today
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with the chance of an isolated M-class event from Region
431.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the day and active late in
the day. At 1340Z, a shock passed the NASA/ACE spacecraft with a
100 km/s increase in solar wind speed to 540 km/s and an increase in
B-total to over 20 nT. The Bz component of the IMF remained
northward during this time, resulting in active conditions on Earth.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one due to residual
effects from the shock. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on
day two and day three.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 119 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 125/130/125 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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