Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Activity was at low levels. The largest event was a C4
at 15/2234Z from just beyond the west limb. Region 431 (S12W26)
continues a slow decay but retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. The delta configuration within the intermediate spots
appears to be simplifying. New Region 435 (S18W41) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels. Region 431 has the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to active conditions.
Two periods of isolated active conditions were observed. Solar wind
speed has decreased to below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with the chance of
isolated active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 127 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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