Viewing archive of Friday, 12 September 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest flare was a B8 from Region 456 (S07W45) at 12/2000Z. A long duration B7 X-ray enhancement occurred at 11/2237 and was correlated with the two disappearing solar filaments. The first DSF was five degrees long and lifted off around 11/2100Z near S25E05. The second DSF followed the first and was along the same inversion line. This DSF was about ten-degrees long and lifted off near S18E15. LASCO C2 imagery indicates a partial halo CME associated with the DSF's.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 600 km/s and Bz has been predominantly northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Activity on day one and day two is expected to be quiet to unsettled. CME effects are possible on day three with activity expected to be at unsettled to active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Sep 094
  Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep  095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        12 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Sep  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%35%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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