Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 September 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 456 (S07W59) produce a C2/Sf flare at 13/0742Z. This region has develeoped a small delta magnetic configuration in the intermediate spots and continues a steady growth phase. New Region 458 (S08W32) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 456 has the potential for C-class activity and a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The high speed stream of the past few days has ended with solar wind speeds back down around 450 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one of the forecast period. Weak CME effects are possible on day two and day three with quiet to active levels expected.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Sep 096
  Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep  100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        13 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Sep  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  010/010-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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