Viewing archive of Friday, 22 August 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Most observed activity occurred in Region 436 (N07E03) which has grown since yesterday and has become more magnetically complex. Region 440 (S07W06) is also rapidly growing but has not yet produced significant activity. New Regions 442 (S12E65) and 443 (N15E09) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class flares are possible in Regions 436 and 440. There is also a slight chance of a small M-class flare in Region 436.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. The high speed stream induced disturbance continues. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to vary from unsettled to storm levels. The intensity of the coronal hole disturbance is expected to begin to diminish by the third day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
Class M10%15%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Aug 121
  Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  120/120/122
  90 Day Mean        22 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  029/053
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  025/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  025/030-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm50%50%50%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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