Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity was low. A long-duration C5 flare
occurred at 07/1407Z in Region 450 (S17W63). This flare was
characterized in H-alpha imagery by several prolonged bright kernels
in ribbon form along a thin NW-SE filament. This event appeared to
trigger a large 19 degree filament eruption near S38W18. Minor
centimetric radio bursts also accompanied this event, and LASCO
imagery revealed a large CME in progress. The X-ray flux was still
considerably enhanced by the end of the period. Region 450 is a
small, simple beta group in decay. The remaining active regions
were either stable or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. The current X-ray flux levels are elevated following
today's eruption, but are expected to return to the pre-flare
background level early in the period. Very isolated low C-class
flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has
declined to below 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. A
recurring high speed coronal hole stream will likely produce active
to minor storm periods on days two and three. Activity on day three
may be further enhanced by transient material from today's CME off
the SW limb.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 108 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 012/012-015/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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